The probability of an asteroid hitting Earth will double in 2032.
Based on new observations made by NASA, there is a 2.3 percent chance that the asteroid named 2024 YR4 will impact the Earth on December 22, 2032.
The probability of the recently discovered asteroid, which is expected to make a close pass near Earth in 2032, has doubled.
Based on new observations from NASA, there is a 2.3 percent chance of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth on December 22, 2032.
Before, the space agency had estimated the risk to be about 1 per cent.
Despite the low risk, scientists continue to closely observe the asteroid's trajectory.
The visibility of 2024 YR4 will last until April. The International Asteroid Warning Network will keep an eye on the asteroid using ground-based telescopes. By April, the asteroid will be too dim to be seen until June 2028.
The exact size of the asteroid will be determined by the James Webb Space Telescope in March 2025 to clear collision predictions. At the moment, it is estimated that the space rock has a diameter of 40 to 90 metres.
The Torino Scale determined that the asteroid's threat was 3 degrees.
The asteroid with a rating of 3 (Yellow Level) is most likely to hit Earth, but it will have a localized impact instead of global damage. By using more precise calculations, the probability of asteroids impacting this category can be reset to zero.
According to SciTechDaily, the scale operates in the following manner:
If the degree is 0-1, there is no chance of an asteroid impact.
2-4 degrees: An event that needs to be monitored but is not yet of concern.
A risk of 5+ degrees is more serious and requires international planning.
What damage is asteroid 2024 YT4 capable of causing?
If the data scientists have gathered about 2024 YT4 is accurate, the asteroid will be equal to the size of Tunguska, which struck Earth in 1908. As a result, the effect can be felt at the local level. The asteroid has the potential to cause significant damage to the impact site.
In human history, Tunguska has been recorded as the largest asteroid impact event. Prehistoric times had many larger impacts, as we know. Chicxulub is the most prominent of these, as it occurred approximately 66 million years ago and wiped out two-thirds of life on Earth.
The impact of Tunguska was not violent. The asteroid exploded in the atmosphere over a remote Russian region, releasing the same energy as the explosion of 50 million tonnes of TNT.
Space.com reported that the impact caused the flattling of an estimated 80 million trees across an area of 2,150 square kilometers, resulting in the death of three people.
"If 2024 YT4 is made of rocky material, it could explode in midair and reach the ground as a fireball," said David Rankin, asteroid hunter and engineer at Catalina Sky Survey.
If it's made of iron, it can easily penetrate the atmosphere and create an impact crater. It's crucial to comprehend not only the orbit, but also its composition and size.
Rankin and fellow astronomers globally will keep collecting as much information as possible about asteroid 2024 YT4 before 2032.
